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NOAA Fisheries
Service
Galveston
Laboratory
4700 Avenue U
Galveston, TX
77551-5997
409.766.3500


Tables

FORECAST FOR THE 2004 BROWN SHRIMP SEASON IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE U.S. - MEXICO BORDER
Table 1.  Rainfall and air temperature during 2004 for selected areas.  Source:   NOAA, National Climatic Data Center and National Weather Service, June 14, 2004.
Year-to-Date
Rainfall
(Inches)		 Rainfall
(Inches Above/
Below Historical)		 Departure:  Above or Below Historical Monthly Average
Air Temperature (°F) and Precipitation (inches)
JAN FEB MAR APR
Temper-
ature		 Rain-
fall		 Temper-
ature		 Rain-
fall		 Temper-
ature		 Rain-
fall		 Temper-
ature		 Rain-
fall
TEXAS
Brownsville 16 7 3 0 -1 0 4 3 1 1
Corpus Christi 20 8 3 0 -2 0 5 -1 0 7
Houston 34 13 3 2 -2 3 5 -1 1 2
Port Arthur 29 4 2 1 -3 3 4 -2 0 -1
LOUISIANA
Lake Charles 39 14 2 3 -2 5 4 0 1 1
New Orleans 44 15 1 -3 -3 3 3 -4 -1 10

.

Table 2.  Salinities and water temperatures in West Galveston Bay during April and May, 1982-2004.
Source for salinity and temperature data 1997-2004:  Texas Parks and Wildlife Department.
Year
Offshore Catch
(Millions of Pounds)
Salinity
(PPT)
Water
Temperature
(°F)
APR MAY APR MAY
1982
21.8
 24 20 76 77
1983
18.2
 24 28 66 74
1984
24.1
 28 32 78 82
1985
30.4
 21 25 79 82
1986
27.1
 27 28 75 78
1987
27.2
 32 31 84 79
1988
22.5
 25 25 78 79
1989
30.3
 26 25 77 83
1990
33.4
 15 18 NA 84
1991
32.8
 15 15 74 81
1992
24.6
 15 21 73 82
1993
21.1
 20 19 73 74
1994
25.5
 21 20 78 79
1995
23.5
 18 19 70 78
1996
22.3
 30 29 77 81
1997
17.0
 13 16 70 78
1998
27.0
 22 30 71 86
1999
22.0
 28 28 82 86
2000
31.1
 31 29 81 82
2001
24.6
 17 24 74 81
2002
21.2
 21 24 75 82
2003
26.1*
 23 21 71 80
2004
 
 14 10 72 77
*Estimated

.

Table 3. Environmental Model prediction of the trend in catch of Texas brown shrimp
 Year
Direction of prediction relative to average
Air
Temperature
Rainfall
Water
Height
Offshore
Catch
(Millions
of Pounds)
1990
+
68.3
0.8
5.7
33.4
1991
+
73.2
0.1
5.9
32.8
1992
-
66.6
0.5
4.9
24.6
1993
-
66.9
0.9
5.4
21.1
1994
+
71.2
1.3
5.6
25.5
1995
+
72.7
1.1
5.4
23.5
1996
-
70.3
0.7
4.9
22.3
1997
+
68.3
0.4
5.5
17.0
1998
-
68.5
0.5
5.1
27.0
1999
+
70.8
0.2
5.3
22.0
2000
+
70.3
0.1
5.4
31.1
2001
+
74.3
0.5
5.2
24.6
2002
+
74.1
1.2
6.2
21.2
2003
+
68.9
0.2
5.5
26.1*
2004
+
69.1
0.2
5.1
 

.

Table 4.  Estimated average May inshore commercial shrimp catch in pounds per hour (heads-on) for selected Texas Bays, 1986-2004.
Year
Selected Texas Bay Systems Pounds/Hour (heads-on)
Offshore
Catch (Millions
of pounds)
of Pounds)
San
Antonio
Corpus
Christi
Aransas
Matagorda
Galveston
1986
40
20
40
40
48
27.1
1987
45
20
41
45
50
27.2
1988
75
38
46
33
45
22.5
1989
29
25
26
18
31
30.3
1990
64
54
62
55
63
33.4
1991
41
38
56
31
23
32.8
1992
14
25
19
12
23
24.6
1993
44
32
28
32
28
21.1
1994
53
50
54
51
32
25.5
1995
38
45
38
 
22
23.5
1996
40
32
43
30
18
22.3
1997
35
48
52
25
31
17.0
1998
56
48
37
37
26
27.0
1999
47
32
35
34
33
22.0
2000
45
32
29
32
42
31.1
2001
60
45
35
60
34
24.6
2002
44
35
38
19
16
21.2
2003
43
35
53
32
26
26.1*
1986-2003
45
36
41
34
33
 
2004
NE
31
9**
45
19
 
Dominant
Count
 
100+
100+
71-80
81-100
100-120
120+
 
*Estimated NE - No quantifiable effort. ** See text.

.

Table 5. Texas offshore brown shrimp catch predictions (millions of pounds) based on Galveston Bay bait index values. Average catch (July-June) from 1960-2001 was 26.5 million pounds.
Year
Predicted Catch
Actual Catch
Difference
1960
29.1
34.5
5.4
1961
20.0
13.2
-6.8
1962
21.5
17.3
-4.2
1963
29.0
24.6
-4.4
1964
22.6
18.6
-4.0
1965
25.6
26.4
0.8
1966
-
31.5
-
1967
39.0
42.7
3.7
1968
22.0
27.9
5.9
1969
26.3
24.7
-1.6
1970
33.7
30.7
-3.0
1971
37.1
34.4
-2.7
1972
38.0
35.5
-2.5
1973
19.4
23.3
3.9
1974
23.8
26.4
2.6
1975
-
23.7
-
1976
23.8
25.7
1.9
1977
30.5
34.4
3.9
1978
25.5
27.7
2.2
1979
-
16.5
-
1980
26.7
26.2
-0.5
1981
29.3
41.5
12.2
1982
21.5
21.8
0.3
1983
17.8
18.2
0.4
1984
22.9
24.1
1.2
1985
29.0
30.4
1.4
1986
25.3
27.1
1.8
1987
25.7
27.2
1.5
1988
25.9
22.5
-3.4
1989
23.1
30.3
7.2
1990
-
33.4
-
1991
23.1
32.8
9.7
1992
24.1
24.6
0.5
1993
26.8
21.1
-5.7
1994
27.1
25.5
-1.6
1995
29.1
23.5
-5.6
1996
25.1
22.3
-2.8
1997
28.2
17.0
-11.2
1998
25.8
27.0
1.2
1999
24.5
22.0
-2.5
2000
30.0
31.1
1.1
2001
23.7
24.6
0.9
2002
26.6
23.7*
-2.9
2003
21.6
 
 
*estimated

.

actual catch by year

.

Table 6. Louisiana inshore and offshore brown shrimp catch prediction (millions of pounds) based on May catch index values. Average catch (May - April) from 1960-2001 was 30.0 million pounds. Acreage with salinities greater than 10 ppt is in millions of acres.
Year Predicted Catch Actual Catch Difference Acreage > 10 ppt
1960   16.0    
1961   9.1    
1962   7.3    
1963   16.9    
1964   9.6    
1965   17.7    
1966   18.7    
1967   29.5    
1968   25.4    
1969   25.2    
1970   28.1    
1971   30.7    
1972   32.2    
1973   17.9    
1974   20.6    
1975   18.1    
1976   37.5    
1977   49.1    
1978   45.9    
1979   36.7    
1980   23.8    
1981   44.3    
1982   33.0    
1983   24.9    
1984   33.3    
1985 40.3 33.7 -6.6  
1986 50.0 44.1 -5.9 2.50
1987 32.9 40.0 7.1 1.50
1988 30.2 34.3 4.1 1.35
1989 43.7 37.6 -6.1 1.74
1990 60.0 45.9 -14.1 1.20
1991 35.4 32.0 -3.4 1.00
1992 26.3 28.2 1.9 1.55
1993 - 27.7 - 0.80
1994 31.7 24.6 -7.1 1.20
1995 36.5 31.7 -4.8 1.60
1996 31.8 35.3 3.5 1.85
1997 25.5 29.3 3.8 1.00
1998 40.3 34.2 -6.1 1.40
1999 45.0 42.7 -2.3 1.80
2000 47.1 43.9 -3.2 2.48
2001 62.4 42.1 -20.3 2.22
2002 39.0 37.1* -1.9 1.50
2003 42.0     1.35
*estimated

.

actual catch by year