Predicting community changes in marine reserves 

Ronald L. Hill
NOAA/NMFS, Southeast Fisheries Science Center-Galveston,
4700 Ave. U, Galveston, TX   77554 

ABSTRACT

 Although marine reserves are proving, throughout the world, to be valuable tools for fishery management, uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of expected changes has left some resource managers and many fishers hesitant to accept establishment of reserves.  Trophic models, using Ecopath with Ecosim, can be used to predict changes in target species, to assess differences in reserve performance based on inclusion/exclusion of different habitat types, and to predict time frames within which changes in species abundance and size distributions can be expected. A trophic model of a Caribbean coral reef ecosystem, representing the Turrumote reef platform off La Parguera, is being generated using both extensive historical data sets and recent field data.  By using the combination, we can track historical trends in community changes, evaluate fishing pressure over time, and predict future changes in fish assemblages.  The first stage of model construction, updating and completing a generalized Caribbean model, is presented along with model simulations run over space and time.  Results of the model simulations can estimate the effects of a no-take reserve on different target species and can predict time frames within which benefits should accrue.  Future work will continue the customization of the model and will use changes in field conditions to validate the model. Reliable predictions should help fishery managers to understand the use and applicability of no-take marine reserves for improved management and to expect realistic time frames for assessing reserve effectiveness.

• Powerpoint presentation available upon request from Dr. Ron Hill

• Draft Manuscript available upon request from Dr. Ron Hill

Published Reference:

Hill, R.L. 2006. Predicting community changes in marine reserves. Proceedings of the 57^th Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute (Xel-Há, Quintana Roo, Mexico November 11-15, 2002). 57: 634-641.