Trophic models, such as those developed with the Ecopath suite of software (Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace), have been developed to characterize a number of different ecosystems and test various types of management strategies. Currently we are working related models at two complementary scales. One is being built to predict the effects of “no-take” marine zones on fishery productivity and investigate effects and timeframes for changes in species/groups from different trophic levels. This is using extensive biological data from the La Parguera reef system in Puerto Rico. This project is also linked to the NOAA-funded Coral Reef Ecosystem Studies (CRES) consortium, headed by the University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez exploring current status and causes of decline in Caribbean coral reef ecosystems. From this collaboration we are receiving up-to-date information from the program to initiate models and simulations. Continued monitoring in the area will allow testing of predictions. This work is being conducted in conjunction with the Fisheries Centre at the University of British Columbia and has provided support for three different Ph.D. students in the Department of Marine Science of the University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez. A generalized Caribbean model is also being developed that can be used to model systems in the USVI and Puerto Rico. We are attempting to create a template that can be easily adapted for use in similar coral reef ecosystems. Products derived from the project will support efforts of the Caribbean, Gulf, and South Atlantic FMCs in their evaluation of marine reserves in the southeast region and may point the way towards improved ecosystem-based resource management.

Initial development of the models has progressed with the support of the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program. By working with models originally developed by Dr. Sylvia Opitz we have been able to test our approach and generate new directions to improve the effectiveness of our modeling. From the preliminary work, a number of presentations have been made at scientific conferences, detailing our plans and initial results; abstracts and copies of presentations listed below.

For more project or model details, contact Dr. Ron Hill

Presentations

• Predicting community changes in marine reserves (GCFI 2002)
• Testing habitat inclusion in marine protected areas (GCFI 2004)
• Ecopath as a means to an end: Modeling fishing dynamics and marine reserves in an ecosystem context (ICRS 2004)
• Defining ecological targets for ecosystem-based resource management (GCFI 2005)